[医学阅读软件]医学补充阅读：Birdflulikelytooccuragain

By Maggie Fox 　　W

　　by maggie fox

　　washington (reuters) - bird flu is likely to cross over into people again and again if it even once acquires the ability to pass from human to human, experts predicted on monday.

　　in theory, the virus only has to mutate once, in one person, to spark a pandemic. but the researchers argue that this could happen again and again, in several places around the world.

　　they said even if the current pandemic killing birds passes, no one should breathe a sign of relief because the threat to people will not be gone.

　　"at best, a containment policy will only postpone the emergence of a pandemic, 'buying time' to prepare for its effects," dr. marc lipsitch and colleagues from the harvard school of public health and dr. carl bergstrom from the university of washington wrote.

　　this is what officials hope they are doing now by culling birds when new outbreaks of h5n1 avian influenza occur. public health experts agree the world is nowhere near ready to cope with a pandemic, but with a few years' preparations, some countries might be.

　　"we argue here that if a single introduction of a pandemic-capable strain is expected, multiple introductions should also be expected," lipsitch's team wrote in the public library of science medicine, an online medical journal.

医学补充阅读：Bird flu likely to occur again.doc

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