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Part I
Reading Passage 1
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 1-14 which are based on
Reading Passage 1 below.
Next Year Marks the EU's 50th Anniversary of the Treaty
A.
After a period of introversion and stunned self-disbelief, continental
European governments will recover their enthusiasm for pan-European
institution-building in 2007. Whether the European public will welcome a return
to what voters in two countries had rejected so short a time before is another
matter.
B.
There are several reasons for Europe’s recovering self-confidence. For
years European economies had been lagging dismally behind America (to say
nothing of Asia), but in 2006 the large continental economies had one of their
best years for a decade, briefly outstripping America in terms of growth. Since
politics often reacts to economic change with a lag, 2006’s improvement in
economic growth will have its impact in 2007, though the recovery may be ebbing
by then.
C.
The coming year also marks a particular point in a political cycle so
regular that it almost seems to amount to a natural law. Every four or five
years, European countries take a large stride towards further integration by
signing a new treaty: the Maastricht treaty in 1992, the Treaty of Amsterdam in
1997, the Treaty of Nice in 2001. And in 2005 they were supposed to ratify a
European constitution, laying the ground for yet more integration—until the calm
rhythm was rudely shattered by French and Dutch voters. But the political
impetus to sign something every four or five years has only been interrupted,
not immobilised, by this setback.
D.
In 2007 the European Union marks the 50th anniversary of another treaty—the
Treaty of Rome, its founding charter. Government leaders have already agreed to
celebrate it ceremoniously, restating their commitment to “ever closer union”
and the basic ideals of European unity. By itself, and in normal circumstances,
the EU’s 50th-birthday greeting to itself would be fairly meaningless, a routine
expression of European good fellowship. But it does not take a Machiavelli to
spot that once governments have signed the declaration (and it seems unlikely
anyone would be so uncollegiate as to veto it) they will already be halfway
towards committing themselves to a new treaty. All that will be necessary will
be to incorporate the 50th-anniversary declaration into a new treaty containing
a number of institutional and other reforms extracted from the failed attempt at
constitution-building and—hey presto—a new quasi-constitution will be ready.
E.
According to the German government—which holds the EU’s agenda-setting
presidency during the first half of 2007—there will be a new draft of a
slimmed-down constitution ready by the middle of the year, perhaps to put to
voters, perhaps not. There would then be a couple of years in which it will be
discussed, approved by parliaments and, perhaps, put to voters if that is deemed
unavoidable. Then, according to bureaucratic planners in Brussels and Berlin,
blithely ignoring the possibility of public rejection, the whole thing will be
signed, sealed and a new constitution delivered in 2009-10. Europe will be
nicely back on schedule. Its four-to-five-year cycle of integration will have
missed only one beat.
F.
The resurrection of the European constitution will be made more likely in
2007 because of what is happening in national capitals. The European Union is
not really an autonomous organisation. If it functions, it is because the
leaders of the big continental countries want it to, reckoning that an active
European policy will help them get done what they want to do in their own
countries.
G.
That did not happen in 2005-06. Defensive, cynical and self-destructive,
the leaders of the three largest euro-zone countries—France, Italy and
Germany—were stumbling towards their unlamented ends. They saw no reason to
pursue any sort of European policy and the EU, as a result, barely functioned.
But by the middle of 2007 all three will have gone, and this fact alone will
transform the European political landscape.
H.
The upshot is that the politics of the three large continental countries,
bureaucratic momentum and the economics of recovery will all be aligned to give
a push towards integration in 2007. That does not mean the momentum will be
irresistible or even popular. The British government, for one, will almost
certainly not want to go with the flow, beginning yet another chapter in the
long history of confrontation between Britain and the rest of Europe. More
important, the voters will want a say. They rejected the constitution in 2005.
It would be foolish to assume they will accept it after 2007 just as a result of
an artful bit of tinkering.