耶鲁《金融市场》视频笔记(3)
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I thought I would just remember a couple of highlights from the first two lectures to consolidate what we said then. 我想重申一下上两节课的几个重点，以便巩固我们讲过的内容 In the first lecture, I talked about a lot of things,but one theme that comes to my mind is the theme of the moral purpose and mission of the finance community. 第一课里，我讲了很多东西，但中心主旨就是金融界的道德目标和使命 We talked about the sense that, I think, young people have a sort of prejudice against the field and they think that finance is a field that you go into if you really value money rather than people. 我们谈论了年轻人对这一行业的偏见，他们认为进入金融业的人金钱至上而不尊重他人 I want to reiterate again that’s not the way I view the field at all. 我想重申一下，我对金融界的看法与他们截然不同 I was just yesterday, I gave a talk in Montreal at the Caisse de Dep---- 昨天，我刚在蒙特利的魁北克储蓄投资集团做了一个讲演 which is the big wealth management fund for the Province of Quebec 这个投资集团是魁北克省的一所大型财产管理基金机构 I met a lot of people there and I never once got the idea that anyone there was evil or grasping. 在那我见了很多人，但是我没有察觉到任何恶毒或者贪婪的气息 I think they have a moral purpose, which is to preserve the livelihoods of the people of the Province of Quebec. 我认为他们都有一个共同的道德目标，就是维持魁北克省居民的生计 You get a very different view of things when you meet the people. 只有当你亲身面对这些人的时候，你会看到事情的另一面 I think our entertainment industry likes to make movies about people in finance, but they are inevitably portrayed as evil and I don’t know why that is. 娱乐产业喜欢制作关于金融业的电影，但里面的人物总是被刻画的很恶毒，我也不知道为什么 I don’t think there has ever been a major motion picture about a financial person who ended up a philanthropist. Why is that? 我觉得好像没有一部正儿八经的电影里金融业者最终成为了慈善家，为什么？ I just don’t--people don’t like-- people would rather hate-- 我不…人们不喜欢… 人们宁愿厌恶… I don’t know why it’s something-- 我不明白为什么 It wouldn’t be a good movie theme, would it? Anyway, you have to overcome these-- 那不是好的电影主题吗？不管怎样，你们要克服这种想法… You have to think that if you go into the field you would probably and if you’re successful, you would probably end up as a philanthropist. but no movie will be made about your life and you may eccounter hostility the whole way. 你们要认为，如果你进入这一行，你很可能，如果你成功了，你很可能成为一位慈善家，但是不会有电影记录你的人生，而且你可能整天遭受白眼 It’s especially true right now with the subprime crisis. 在次贷危机下，情况更是如此 People are blaming the financial community for our troubles now. 现在，人们都把危机怪罪到金融界的头上 It is true that we’re seeing some people thrown out of their houses, in some cases, because of some rather questionable financial practices that got people into mortgages that they shouldn’t have gotten into. 确实我们看到有些人被赶出他们的房子，在有些案例中，确实是有些有问题的金融操纵，使人们背上本不该背负的债务 But overall, I think that the people in this field are good people. 但是总体来说，这一行业的人是好人 In the last lecture, I talke about－－ 上一课，我讲了… In the second lecture, I talked about the pooling of risks and the basic theme of that lecture was that we now have a mathematical theory, probability theory. 第二课，我讲了风险汇聚及分摊，那节课的主题是一门数学理论，即概率论 When you look at this theory, you realize that it suggests a very important technology for improving human welfare and by spreading risks. 这一理论，提出了一个重要的技术即可以通过分散风险，提高收益 The economy, and technology, and the weather and all sorts of factors create risks. 经济，科技，天气各种其他因素都可能创造风险 But the real technoloty is-- the technology that works to eliminate risks is to spread them out to pool them, to share them among many different people. 但是真正的技术，能够降低风险，通过风险汇聚，将风险分散，让很多人共同承担 So, the idea that therists suggest and it may be unreachable, but the perfect financial system would have all of our risks pooled completely. 理论家提出的这一理论，可能无法达到, 但是一个完美的金融体系，能够将所有的风险完全分摊 That is, nobody suffers alone. 也就是说，没有人独自承担损失 If anything happens to me in my livelihood, then it’s spread out over everybody and everybody means the whole world. 如果我的生计出问题了，他将分散到每个人身上，每个人指全世界的人 Whatever happens to me, when it’s spread out over six billion plus people, it ends up divided by six billion and it becomes unobservable. 发生在我身上的事，分散到六十多亿人口上被六十亿除，就变得难以察觉 It becomes so small that it’s meaningless and that’s the ideal. 小到微不足道，这就是完美模型 That’s what, in principle, we can do and what I think is the most important concept in finance--this concept of risk pooling. 原则上，这就是我们能做的，我认为这也是金融业最重要的概念，即风险汇聚及分摊 We live in a world where people suffer all kinds of misfortunes. 我们生活的这个世界，人们会经历各种的不幸 Of course, we can try to get rid of these misfortunes. We can do research on disease prevention and weather modification and global warming. 当然，我们能够避免这些不幸。我们可以研究疾病预防人工影响天气，预防气候变暖 We can do research on all these things. but there’s another technology, which is extremely important. 我们可以研究任何需要研究的事物，但是还有个更重要的技术 That is, even leaving the risks as they are and just sharing them better. 那就是，相对于改变风险的大小，分散风险才是上策 So, I’ll be talking more about this. 我会更详细的讲这个问题 The problem is that while the principle of risk-sharing is very simple and obvious the practice requires technology. 问题在于，尽管风险分摊原则听起来浅显易懂，但是实践仍然需要技术支持 It’s just like you could say some of the principles of mechanics are very obvious, but to make an engine that operates in terms of those principles is not obvious. 这就像你能说很多机械原理都显而易见，但是要根据这些原理制作一个能够运转的发动机，就不那么容易了 What I want to talk today is about what I call technology in finance. 今天我要讲的就是金融学中的技术 I’ll present my view of the situation but maybe it’s rather idiosyncratic view that I have.But I think-- 我会讲讲我的观点，可能我的观点不同寻常，但是，我认为 It’s not so much idiosyncratic, but it’s a different emphasis that I put forth. 也不是那么不同寻常，我讲述的着重点也许有些不同罢了 What I want to talk 我想说的是 There are really three themes to today’s lecture: a risk theme, a framing theme, and an invention theme. 今天的课有三个主题：风险，框架效应及发明 本文来源：https://www.wddqw.com/doc/67d52308f01dc281e53af063.html